Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan

摘要

This study empirically explores the nexus between inflation and economic growth in the context of Pakistan economy. Annual data for the period of 1960-2006 has been used. According to the results of the study, inflation is positively related with economic growth in Pakistan and vice versa. As for as, the concern of causality between these two variables, it is found to be uni-directed. In other words, inflation is causing growth but not vice versa. To examine the extent to which economic growth is related to inflation and vice versa, Error Correction Models (ECM) have been employed. With the help of this procedure, it is possible to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between two variables. The Error Correction Model (ECM) test is essential to see whether an economy is converging towards equilibrium in the short- run or not. According to the outcome of the study, inflation is away from its equilibrium value. For instance, the error correction term -0.49 implies that 49 percent of the adjustments towards the short-run equilibrium relation for Pakistan occur within a year through changes in growth rates. On the other hand, 58 percent (error correction term -0.58) of the deviation of the inflation from its short-run equilibrium level is corrected each year. Furthermore, the estimated threshold model suggest that 9 percent threshold level (i.e. structural break point) of inflation above which inflation starts to lower the economic growth in Pakistan. Pakistan must need inflation but in single digit for growth because too fast a growth rate may also accelerate the inflation rate.