Research on dynamic prediction method for traffic demand based on trip generation analysis

摘要

The characteristics of the residents’ travel in the information age have changed. The existing urban traffic demand forecast is mainly proceeded using the land property. Based on the main contents of urban residents’ travel survey and the characteristics of traditional residents’ travel demand, this article analyzed the dynamic changes of travel characteristics and the main influencing factors of travel formation of future residents. Combined with the travel influence factor weight of travel generation forecast stage established by the analytic hierarchy process, such as the land use, travel mode composition and travel choice, the location influence coefficient in the model of population, land use, and travel generation in city was modified to characterize the dynamic state of travel demand of residents in the phase of travel generation stage. Then a “dynamic” method for forecasting and analyzing traffic travel demand was put forward to apply to the prediction and evaluation of travel demand in Guilin. Th...