Analysis of public opinion evolution of COVID-19 based on LDA-ARMA hybrid model

摘要

The aim of this study was to explore a method for developing an emotional evolution classification model for large-scale online public opinion of events such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), in order to guide government departments to adopt differentiated forms of emergency management and to correctly guide online public opinion for severely afflicted areas such as Wuhan and those afflicted elsewhere in China. We propose the LDA-ARMA deep neural network for dynamic presentation and fine-grained categorization of a public opinion events. This was applied to a huge quantity of online public opinion texts in a complicated setting and integrated the proposed sentiment measurement algorithm. To begin, the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) was employed to extract information about the topic of comments. The autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) was then utilized to perform multidimensional sentiment analysis and evolution prediction on large-scale textual data related to COVID-19 published by netizens from Wuhan and other countries on Sina Weibo. The results show that Wuhan netizens paid more attention to the development of the situation, treatment measures, and policies related to COVID-19 than other issues, and were under greater emotional pressure, whereas netizens in the rest of the country paid more attention to the overall COVID-19 prevention and control, and were more positive and optimistic with the assistance of the government and NGOs. The average error in predicting public opinion sentiment was less than 5.64%, demonstrating that this approach may be effectively applied to the analysis of large-scale online public sentiment evolution.