Risk stratification and mortality prediction in octo- and nonagenarians with peripheral artery disease: a retrospective analysis

摘要

Among changes in demographics, aging is the most relevant cardiovascular risk factor. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease (PAD) is high in elderly patients and is associated with a worse prognosis. Despite optimal treatments, mortality in the high-risk population of octo- and nonagenarians with PAD remains excessive, and predictive factors need to be identified. The objective of this study was to investigate predictors of mortality in octo- and nonagenarians with PAD. Cases of treated octo- and nonagenarians, including the clinical characteristics and markers of myocardial injury and heart failure, were studied retrospectively with respect to all-cause mortality. Hazard ratios?[HR] were calculated and survival was analyzed by Kaplan-Meyer curves and receiver operating characteristic curved were assessed for troponin-ultra and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels and chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI). A total of 123 octo- and nonagenarians admitted for PAD were eligible. The troponin level was the major predictor of all-cause mortality (HR: 4.6, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4–15.3), followed by the NT-proBNP level (HR: 3.9, 95% CI 1.8–8.8) and CLTI (HR: 3.1, 95% CI 1.6–5.9). Multivariate regression revealed that each increment of 1 standard deviation in log troponin and log NT-proBNP was associated with a 2.7-fold (95% CI 1.8–4.1) and a 1.9-fold (95% CI 1.2–2.9) increased risk of all-cause death. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using a combination of all predictors yielded an improved area under the curve of 0.888. In a control group of an equal number of younger individuals, only NT-proBNP (HR: 4.2, 95% CI 1.2–14.1) and CLTI (HR: 6.1, 95% CI 1.6–23.4) were predictive of mortality. Our study demonstrates that cardiovascular biomarkers and CLTI are the primary predictors of increased mortality in elderly PAD patients. Further risk stratification through biomarkers in this high-risk population of octo- and nonagenarians with PAD is necessary.