BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI CARBON PEAK FORECASTAND COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGYSAVING AND EMISSION REDUCTION ENVIRONMENT

摘要

With the progress of society and technology, modern society advocates the establishment of economic and social development under the premise of protecting the environment through technological reform and progress. As the third large economic development hub in China, the Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region has a strong capacity for economic development. However, in recent years, the frequency of hazy climate in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is increasing, and the contradiction between environment and development tends to beobvious. Carbon dioxide emission control in the region needs to be developed vigorously to ensure healthy economic and social development and to meet the goal of controllable carbon emission in the future. In order to study the factors influencing carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the future emission trends, scientific and effective emission reduction suggestions are proposed. In this paper, we analyze the time and magnitude of carbon emission peaks in the Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei region through the establishment of various scenarios. Firstly. the LMDI decomposition method is used to make a preliminary analysis of the contribution of carbon emission factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and then the STIRPAT model is used to determine the carbon emission influencing factors and their degree of influence. Through the comparison of different models. it is concluded that the best low-carbon economy can be achieved when the population. economic level and urbanization develop at a medium speed, while the technology level, industrial structure and energy structure develop at a strong high speed. Moreover, the results show that economic development does not necessarily lead toa large expansion of carbon emissions. As long as the technological level can be developed reasonably and efficiently, the coal consumption and the proportion of secondary production can be strongly reduced, the purpose of high-speed economic urban development and carbon emission control can be achieved at the same time.