Real Time Reliability Evaluation and Residual Life Prediction for Individual Product based on Gamma Degradation Process

摘要

In this paper, a real time reliability evaluationand residual life prediction methods for an individual productbased on Gamma degradation process are studied. In order toobtain the real time reliability assessment, a conditionalreliability model is established and a Bayesian updating theoryis used to update the model parameters. In order to obtain theresidual life of individual product, the lifetime distribution isapproximated by using a Birnbaum-Saunders distribution.Considering the model is very complicated, the estimators of theunknown parameters are obtained via Markov Chain MonteCarlo method. At last, a numerical example about laser deviceis given to verify the validity of the present model and method.