Trends in premature mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran: probability of dying between ages 30 and 70 years

摘要

Background: The burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is a major challenge facing the whole world. Around 15 million premature deaths due to NCDs occur in people aged 30–70 years annually. Aims: Mortality data based on death registration systems and population data were used to estimate proposed mortality statistics in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Methods: Various criteria and methods were used to assess the quality of mortality data. The probability of dying among those aged 30–70 years for all causes and for NCDs was calculated using the life table method. Results: The mortality rate in the population aged 30–69 years was 343.12 (per 100 000 persons) in 2006 and decreased to 240.62 in 2016 in both sexes. The probability of dying due to NCDs was 21.36% in 2006 and declined to 14.95% in 2016 for both sexes. Conclusions: The number of premature deaths due to NCDs have decreased over the last decade. We predict that this reduction will continue and the country will meet the targets of the WHO NCD action plan by 2025 and also the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals for reducing premature deaths by 2030. However, the morbidity and burden of NCDs are still public health concerns in the country. Due to advancements in health care technologies and also the aging population, these concerns will impose greater costs on the health system. Hence, prevention programmes for NCDs should be an urgent priority for Iranian health policy.