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A global meta-analysis of climate services and decision-making in agriculture

机译:全球荟萃分析气候服务和农业决策

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Harmonizing the supply of climate information with the type of information needed by next-users is crucial for effective weather and climate services (CS). Understanding of information demand could help reshape supply-side based CS that have dominated the field over the last few decades. Most CS have been developed using a ‘loading dock’ model, whereby products are designed by information suppliers with little input from or consultation with users of climate services. Notably, a focus on climate modelling and prediction has largely resulted in a lack of consideration of the demand-side when producing climate services. Here, we contribute to understanding of CS demand by presenting a global meta -analysis – a ‘decision matrix’ - of farmers’ climate-influenced decisions. We identify 41 studies that encompass 186 decisions, three forecast timescales (weather, dekadal, seasonal), and five forecast variables (precipitation, temperature, wind, soil moisture and soil temperature). Several insights were offered by this literature review into the value of climate services and the way forward in considering users’ needs. We find that the seasonal precipitation is the most frequently used forecast variable for decision-making, particularly of crop sowing date. Forecasts such as temperature, soil moisture and soil temperature appeared to be less used by farmers, according to the decision matrix. It is apparent that more investigation is necessary into how farmers use climate information in their decision-making to better establish the value of CS. We suggest that different sectors should make their respective decision matrices to explore decision spaces and engage with users of climate information in various sectors.
机译:与下一个用户所需的信息类型协调气候信息,对于有效的天气和气候服务至关重要(CS)。了解信息需求可以帮助重塑基于供应侧的CS,这些CS在过去几十年中占据了该领域。大多数CS都是使用“装载码头”模型开发的,由此产品由信息供应商设计,与气候服务的用户提供少量或咨询。值得注意的是,对气候建模和预测的关注主要导致生产气候服务时对需求方缺乏考虑。在这里,我们通过呈现全球荟萃分析 - 一个“决策矩阵” - 农民的气候影响的决策来促进对CS需求的贡献。我们确定41项研究,包括186项决策,三项预测时间尺度(天气,DEKADAL,季节性)和五个预测变量(降水,温度,风,土壤水分和土壤温度)。该文献审查了几次见解,审查了气候服务的价值以及考虑用户需求的前进方向。我们发现季节性降水是最常用的预测变量,用于决策,特别是作物播种日期。根据决策矩阵,农民的温度,土壤水分和土壤温度等预测似乎较少使用。显然,有必要对农民在其决策中如何利用气候信息来更好地建立CS的价值来进行更多调查。我们建议不同的部门应使其各自的决策矩阵探索决策空间,并与各个部门的气候信息的用户参与。

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