Trend dynamics of thyroid cancer incidence among China and the U.S. adult population from 1990 to 2017: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

摘要

Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant disease of the endocrine system. Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of TC has been increasing in the past 25?years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1990 to 2017. We examined the trends of TC incidence and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rate using the Joinpoint regression analysis in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence. The ASIR of China increased markedly with AAPC of 4.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.0, 5.0%) and 1.8% (1.6, 2.0%) for men and women during 1990–2017. The ASIR of the U. S increased by 1.4% (1.0, 1.8%) and 1.3% (0.9, 1.7%) for men and women from 1990 to 2017.TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age effect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period effect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1990–2017 in the U.S. The cohort effect peaked in 1963–1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S. From 1990 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation.