PLUME-MoM-TSM 1.0.0: a volcanic column and umbrella cloud spreading model

摘要

In?this paper, we present a new version of PLUME-MoM, a 1-D integral volcanic plume model based on the method of moments for the description of the polydispersity in solid particles. The model describes the steady-state dynamics of a plume in a 3-D coordinate system, and a modification of the two-size moment (TSM) method is adopted to describe changes in grain size distribution along the plume, associated with particle loss from plume margins and with particle aggregation. For this reason, the new version is named PLUME-MoM-TSM. For the first time in a plume model, the full Smoluchowski coagulation equation is solved, allowing us to quantify the formation of aggregates during the rise of the plume. In addition, PLUME-MOM-TSM allows us to model the phase change of water, which can be either magmatic, added at the vent as liquid from external sources, or incorporated through ingestion of moist atmospheric air. Finally, the code includes the possibility to simulate the initial spreading of the umbrella cloud intruding from the volcanic column into the atmosphere. A transient shallow-water system of equations models the intrusive gravity current, allowing computation of the upwind spreading. The new model is applied first to the eruption of the Calbuco volcano in southern Chile in April 2015 and then to a sensitivity analysis of the upwind spreading of the umbrella cloud to mass flow rate and meteorological conditions (wind speed and humidity). This analysis provides an analytical relationship between the upwind spreading and some observable characteristic of the volcanic column (height of the neutral buoyancy level and plume bending), which can be used to better link plume models and volcanic-ash transport and dispersion models.