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Power-law population heterogeneity governs epidemic waves

机译:权力法人口异质性治理流行性波浪

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We generalize the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model for epidemics to take into account generic effects of heterogeneity in the degree of susceptibility to infection in the population. We introduce a single new parameter corresponding to a power-law exponent of the susceptibility distribution at small susceptibilities. We find that for this class of distributions the gamma distribution is the attractor of the dynamics. This allows us to identify generic effects of population heterogeneity in a model as simple as the original SIR model which is contained as a limiting case. Because of this simplicity, numerical solutions can be generated easily and key properties of the epidemic wave can still be obtained exactly. In particular, we present exact expressions for the herd immunity level, the final size of the epidemic, as well as for the shape of the wave and for observables that can be quantified during an epidemic. In strongly heterogeneous populations, the herd immunity level can be much lower than in models with homogeneous populations as commonly used for example to discuss effects of mitigation. Using our model to analyze data for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Germany shows that the reported time course is consistent with several scenarios characterized by different levels of immunity. These scenarios differ in population heterogeneity and in the time course of the infection rate, for example due to mitigation efforts or seasonality. Our analysis reveals that quantifying the effects of mitigation requires knowledge on the degree of heterogeneity in the population. Our work shows that key effects of population heterogeneity can be captured without increasing the complexity of the model. We show that information about population heterogeneity will be key to understand how far an epidemic has progressed and what can be expected for its future course.
机译:我们概括了流行病的敏感感染(SIR)模型,以考虑在群体感染程度上的异质性的通用影响。我们介绍了对应于敏感性分布的幂律指数的单一新参数,以小敏感性。我们发现,对于这类分布,伽玛分布是动态的吸引子。这允许我们识别模型中的群体异质性的通用效果,作为作为限制案例所含的原始SIR模型的简单。由于这种简单性,可以容易地生成数值解决方案,并且仍然可以确切地获得流行病的关键特性。特别是,我们向群体免疫水平提出确切的表达,流行病的最终规模以及波浪的形状和可观察到的可观察能力在流行病中可以量化。在强烈的异质群体中,群体免疫水平可以低于具有均匀群体的模型,例如讨论缓解效果。使用我们的模型来分析德国SARS-COV-2流行病的数据表明,报告的时间课程与各种方案一致,其特征在于不同程度的免疫力。这些情景在人口异质性和感染率的时间过程中不同,例如由于缓解努力或季节性。我们的分析表明,量化缓解的影响需要了解人口中的异质程度。我们的工作表明,可以捕获人口异质性的关键效果而不会增加模型的复杂性。我们展示了有关人口异质性的信息将是理解流行病程度的关键,并且可以对其未来课程的预期。

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