When Pigs Fly: Pandemic influenza enters the 21st century

摘要

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) are one of the most intensively studied pathogens, due to the severe global mortality and economic disruption associated with influenza pandemics [1]. In addition to annual epidemics, pandemics sporadically occur when a novel IAV host jumps to humans from an animal reservoir [2]. Wild waterfowl have long been considered the most important reservoir host and pandemic risk, but there are indications that mammals are emerging as key reservoirs. Here, we describe how the modernization of swine production during the last half century provided new opportunities for IAVs to become established in swine globally [3–5], resulting in the first influenza pandemic of swine origin in 2009 [6]. A key lesson is that the landscape of pandemic risk is not static but continuously shifting in response to demographic changes in host populations. It is therefore vital to track how transformations in the economy and global trade impact animal contact rates, disease dynamics, and pandemic risk among livestock and companion animals.