Evolution Mechanism on the Unsafe Behavioural Risks of General Aviation Pilots

摘要

The unsafe behaviour prevention and control of general aviation pilots has become an emphasis in the general aviation safety management with the increasing number of general aviation enterprises, lengthening of flight time and frequent occurrence of public safety events caused by general aviation accidents. How to identify the factors influencing the unsafe behaviours of general aviation pilots and clarify the inter factor evolution mechanism is hot issue in the general aviation. To accurately identify the key factors influencing the unsafe behaviours of general aviation pilots and define the interaction mechanism between factors, using the unsafe behaviours of pilots in 200 global general aviation accidents during 2015-2019 and the association rule method, the bottom-layer factors of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) model were analysed. Furthermore, the influence degree, influenced degree, centrality and causality of the influencing factors in the HFACS model were calculated, and the risk transfer path at different layers was determined on the basis of the integrated decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and fuzzy theory. Results show that the poor individual ready state is strongly associated with skill error, decision-making error and habitual violation. Moreover, 11 factors, such as poor physical environment, physical/intelligence limitation and poor technical environment, constitute the factors in the cause group for pilot unsafe behaviours. 7 factors, such as insufficient supervision, improper operation plan and failure to discover and correct problems, are the factors in the result group. Illegal behaviour, failure to discover and correct problems and decision-making error of pilots, which are of high centrality, are key factors influencing the unsafe behaviours of general aviation pilots. The conclusions obtained from this study compensate the deficiencies for the linear statistical model of risk factors and provide a novel method for regulating and controlling the unsafe behaviours of general aviation pilots.