The paper analyzes the operating conditions of road transport affecting its reliability. It is concluded that it is necessary to develop scientifically based strategies flexible of AE maintenance based on predicting the failure moment by extrapolating the process of time drift of the informative parameters of the AE at the interval of its intended use. To solve this problem, we propose an approach based on the use of quasi-deterministic models of the time drift of the AE parameters, which allow to obtain analytical expressions for the main reliability indicators -density of the distribution time to failure and the probability of failure -free operation at a given time interval. On the basis of these indicators of reliability in operation, performance indicators have been formed allowing determining of the optimal maintenance frequency. In the final part of the article, the author proposes an algorithm and a methodology that allows organizing flexible strategies for AE maintenance, considering special conditions of its operation.
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