Research long-term fluctuations in winter temperatures. Methods for analyzing the intensities and synchronicities of fluctuations in fuel consumption

摘要

The article deals with the problem of assessing the deviations of the meteorological characteristics of the heating season. The usual method of calculating the relative deviations of indicators from the arithmetic mean is not suitable. A requirement is imposed on the “new” averages and estimates of deviations of meteorological characteristics, which follows from their properties: the duration multiplied by the average daily temperature difference for the heating period should be equal to the integral temperature difference. The application of this property to the means and to the very estimates of the deviations of meteorological characteristics makes it difficult to determine the latter. A method is being developed to determine the intensities of fluctuations in the meteorological characteristics of the heating season. Intensities show how much, on average, the duration, average daily and integral temperature differences for the heating period can deviate from the average expected level. A technique is being developed for reflecting synchronous and asynchronous fluctuations in deviations of meteorological characteristics, and the contributions of these fluctuations are determined.