Method for choosing a scheme of placing navigation signs on a section of inland waterways for navigating a vessel with a given navigation risk value

摘要

This paper is devoted to the method of choosing a scheme for placing navigation signs on sections of inland waterways to ensure the navigation of vessels with a given level of navigation risks. The methods used are known from the theory of probability and mathematical statistics for the assessment of navigation risks, which is proposed to be performed by stochastic methods, estimating the dis-placement of the center of the vessel's size and the variability of the maneuvering lane. It is shown that according to the results of mathematical modeling of the controlled movement of the vessel along the difficult for navigation section “Ivanovskie Porogi” on the Neva river, these navigation parameters are subject to the normal distribution law. This made it possible to reduce the problem of risk assessment to the problem of finding the probability of a random variable hitting the designated lane. A formal assessment of the navigational risk of navigating a vessel through a section that is difficult for navigation was carried out, on the ba-sis of which it is possible to judge the quality of the vessel's control and the prob-ability of the vessel going beyond the edge of the fairway. The results presented in this work were obtained during the implementation of the INFUTURE international project.