The Research on Delay Propagation of Urban Rail Transit Operation under Sudden Failure

摘要

With the increase and extension of urban rail transit lines, networked operation has become an inevitable trend of rail transit operations. Once an emergency occurs, it will cause operational delays; in serious cases, it may further lead to group safety incidents. Firstly, the sudden failure of rail transit is defined, statistical calculation is made according to the accumulated failure data, and then the sudden failures and average processing time are quantitatively calculated. Secondly, the time delay and propagation under the state of sudden failure are analyzed, on the basis of which the propagation and dissipation of time delay based on the single station failure cellular automata model and SIR model network based on multistation fault delay propagation are constructed. Finally, the reliability and accuracy of the model are verified by a case of rail transit in a city. The scheme in this paper can be used to estimate the scope of time and space delay under the sudden failure of rail transit and can provide the basis for the adjustment of traffic organization scheme and evacuation of passenger flow under the sudden failure.