Construction of Credit Evaluation Index System for Two-Stage Bayesian Discrimination: An Empirical Analysis of Small Chinese Enterprises

摘要

In China, small enterprises have a direct role in economic growth, but they have difficulty in financing development. To address this problem, this paper creates a small business credit evaluation index using a two-stage Bayesian discriminant model. In the first stage, customers are distinguished by whether they are in default, and in the second stage, customers with continuing default are divided into those with a high default loss rate and those with a low default loss rate. The literature to date has identified a credit index only for the first stage; the credit evaluation index proposed here is based on two stages, which is more sensitive. Then, we conduct an empirical analysis using credit data on 3,111 small enterprises in China with a two-stage nonparametric Bayesian discriminant model and a parametric discriminant model, and then, we test the two indicator systems with discriminant accuracy and an ROC curve; the discriminant accuracy of the established index system is 77.95% and 70.95%, respectively, and their prediction accuracy is 0.902 and 0.866, respectively; they show that the constructed indicator system is robust and effective. Finally, we conduct a comparative analysis of discriminant accuracy in three models, finding that the two-stage nonparametric model is optimal, the two-stage logistic regression model is suboptimal, and the two-stage parametric model is poor.