SARS-CoV-19’s actual initial cases in Wuhan, China and the impact of different interventions and imports in the pandemic

摘要

Start your abstract here…In late 2019, a new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 outbreak began in China and has since spread around the world, causing nearly one million deaths. By the time this article was written, most countries were still in high-and medium-risk, and this pandemic may continue to the year 2021 or even later. However, when this virus first appeared is still under debate. In this paper, I employ a realistic model and the officially reported data to investigate when SARS-CoV-2 first appeared in China, and how many people were infected with the novel coronavirus at the beginning of Dec in 2019. In addition, I used simulation to get the relationship between imported cases and local intervention measures to predict the current intervention level in China. Based on the first part of the simulation, the result indicate that the number and time of the initial cases reported in China might have under a certain inaccuracy. This underestimation of the severity of the pandemic delayed the progress of epidemic prevention and control. In addition, the increase or decrease of imported cases and the intensity of epidemic prevention measures will directly affect the arrival of the epidemic peak. Of course, the number of incoming cases at this time also has a direct impact on the number of deaths and confirmed patients. We used the model to simulate the overall diagnosis of the disease in Wuhan in the early and late stages of the epidemic, and to approximate the difference between the real and the official data. In addition, we also for the late number of imported cases and different intervention has been analyzed, for the future of the normalization of prevention and control recommendations.