Spatio-temporal assessment and economic analysis of a grid-connected island province toward a 35% or greater domestic renewable energy portfolio: a case in Bohol, Philippines

摘要

The year 2020 marks the start of the implementation of the Renewable Portfolio Standards in the Philippines. To raise the country’s renewable energy (RE) share to 35% by 2030 (aspirational target), an annual minimum incremental RE of 1% has been imposed to all mandated participants. This local-level policy implementation has allowed the assessment of RE resource adequacy to be carried out on a smaller geographical scale (i.e., province level). The case for grid-connected island provinces, such as our study area, can be more interesting because of the opportunity to self-sustainable energy production. In this paper, we assess the adequacy of domestic RE resources of Bohol province to reach this target by estimating the technical potential of solar, wind, biomass, and hydropower using spatio-temporal datasets. Then, for every identified potential RE project, we calculate the busbar levelized cost. We also evaluate the province's base RE share to assess the extent to which the technical potential can improve its RE penetration in four distinct domestic and imported energy generation scenarios. With 20 different scenarios of additional RE capacity, we generate RE portfolios for the minimum target RE share (35%), as well as the 50% and maximum. The results revealed that, when the country’s RE penetration continues, Bohol’s hydropower potential is not enough to meet the 35% target. Seasonal renewables are also insufficient for a 50% target. In several scenarios, the province’s energy self-sustainability can be possible at reasonable costs when variable RE technologies are included in the portfolio.