In the current urban rail transit systems, nearly 15% of passengers are noncommuter travelers who use single-trip ticket cards (ticket cards). Accordingly, the effective management of ticket cards is of great importance. This article suggests a time series model for use in predicting ticket card storage based on the characteristics of ticket cards collected by an automatic fare collection (AFC) system. The distribution cycle, station types, and distribution volume of each station are also determined. Then, drawing on small package transportation feasibility theory, an unbalanced distribution model between production and demand (unbalanced distribution model), as well as a hybrid distribution model of loading and unloading (hybrid distribution model), is established. Application of these models to the Beijing Subway system is used to verify the efficiency and feasibility of such a hybrid distribution model. The analysis and results offer insights into usage patterns of urban rail transit ticket cards, providing solid evidence for a relative decision-making process.
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