Monthly Electricity Consumption Forecasting Method Based on X12 and STL Decomposition Model in an Integrated Energy System

摘要

With the rapid development and wide application of distributed generation technology and new energy trading methods, the integrated energy system has developed rapidly in Europe in recent years and has become the focus of new strategic competition and cooperation among countries. As a key technology and decision-making approach for operation, optimization, and control of integrated energy systems, power consumption prediction faces new challenges. The user-side power demand and load characteristics change due to the influence of distributed energy. At the same time, in the open retail market of electricity sales, the forecast of electricity consumption faces the power demand of small-scale users, which is more easily disturbed by random factors than by a traditional load forecast. Therefore, this study proposes a model based on X12 and Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) decomposition of monthly electricity consumption forecasting methods. The first use of the STL model according to the properties of electricity each month is its power consumption time series decomposition individuation. It influences the factorization of monthly electricity consumption into season, trend, and random components. Then, the change in the characteristics of the three components over time is considered. Finally, the appropriate model is selected to predict the components in the reconfiguration of the monthly electricity consumption forecast. A forecasting program is developed based on R language and MATLAB, and a case study is conducted on the power consumption data of a university campus containing distributed energy. Results show that the proposed method is reasonable and effective.