This work re-examined the simulation result of game analysis (Joshi et al., 2000) based on an agent-based model, Santa Fe Institute Artificial Stock Market. Allowing for recent research work on this artificial model, this paper’s modified game simulations found that the dividend amplitude parameter is a crucial factor and that the original conclusion still holds in a not long period, but only when the dividend amplitude is large enough. Our explanation of this result is that the dividend amplitude parameter is a measurement of market uncertainty. The greater the uncertainty, the greater the price volatility, and so is the risk of investing in the stock market. The greater the risk, the greater the advantage of including technical rules.
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机译：这项工作重新审查了基于基于代理的模型，Santa Fe Institue股票市场的游戏分析（Joshi等人，2000）的仿真结果。允许最近的研究工作对这个人工模型，本文的修改游戏模拟发现，股息幅度参数是一个关键因素，最初的结论仍然在不长时间内保持，但仅当股息幅度足够大时仍然存在。我们对此结果的解释是股息幅度参数是市场不确定性的测量。不确定性越大，价格波动率越大，投资股票市场的风险也是如此。风险越大，包括技术规则的优势就越大。
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