Systematic Evaluation of Policy Strategies of the Vulnerability Reduction of the Sistan Plain to the Fluctuations and Water Scarcity

摘要

This study aimed to investigate the vulnerability of Sistan plain to fluctuations and Water Scarcity in Hirmand River using the vulnerability framework, by applying the resilience approach. The socioeconomic and biophysical components presented in this framework were embedded in a set of subsystems of the System Dynamics (SD) model. According to this, four levels of reference resilience were defined based on the annual flow from the Hirmand River, and the system attributes of concern were identified under the existing structure until 2050. Then, the proposed strategies to the socio-economic structure of the model were applied under two critical conditions of water scarcity and fluctuations of the river flow. The values associated to the system attributes of concern of the two mentioned conditions were compared with the reference resilience levels. The results showed the efficiency of the policy option in reducing water scarcity and the importance of the environmental impacts of the biophysical component. For example, the two modes of water scarcity and water inflow fluctuations had the revenues of 9490 and 5100 billion IRR (annual income according to the base price of 2011), but they had the same population and residentchr('39')s utility, which was related to receiving 117 and 600 MCM of the environmental demand, respectively. Management, development and continuous support of the industrial sector can provide a 'Success to the Successful' archetype for the socio-economic section of Sistan Plain.