Sustainable Development Model of Geothermal Energy (A Case Study at Darajat Geothermal Power Plant, Garut-Indonesia)

摘要

World consumption of energy from fossil fuels has continued to increase with the increasing world population growth. In Indonesia, the average growth of energy consumption is 8.5% per year due to economic and population growth. The majority of national energy demand is fulfilled by fossil fuels, but their reserves are decreasing. These situations have forced the government of Indonesia (GOI) to perform efficiency use of fossil fuels and find new alternative energies which are relatively cheaper and environmentally friendly. One of the new alternative energies that meets this criteria is geothermal, which is considered as a renewable energy, has ample reserve, and low CO2 emission. GOI has established the 2006-2025 geothermal development roadmap targeting 9,500 MW in 2025 or a contribution of 5% to national energy consumption. However, current use of geothermal in 2012 is only 1,226 MW or 4% of Indonesia’s geothermal potential (29,215 MW), therefore, this is considered a challenging target for Indonesia to achieve (Sukarna, 2012).This paper describes a conceptual model to develop sustainable geothermal energy to help achieve the GOI challenging target, based on a case study at a Geothermal Power Plant (GPP) in Darajat near Garut, Indonesia. It is intended to provide support for decision makers to accelerate sustainable development of geothermal energy based on social, environmental, and economic aspects. Therefore, some analyses are required to be performed and synthesized so that an optimal, comprehensive and an integrated model of sustainable geothermal development can be obtained. Various analysis conducted are based on a system approach, both hard and soft system approaches. The hard system approach is an analysis of economic investment feasibility of geothermal development at GPP Darajat Garut by calculating Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). The soft system approach is a compilation result of the sustainable analysis of MDS (Multi-Dimensional Scaling), legal/regulation review, AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process), and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling). These analysis results become inputs in designing a conceptual model of sustainable geothermal energy development. The financial analysis result indicates that investment for geothermal energy development is economically feasible with positive NPV and IRR. The MDS analysis result shows that geothermal energy development at GPP Darajat is relatively sustained. A regulation review indicates that there are government regulation inconsistencies and overlaps, and that permitting requirements need to be improved. The AHP analysis result indicates that the government policy consistency is the most important factor that influences improvement to other factors. The ISM analysis result indicates that 3 (three) elements have to be considered for sustainable geothermal development: 1) central government as an actor is the strongest driving power and influence for others, 2) government policy consistency is considered as a main obstacle, and (3) developing a long term strategy and policy are the key elements and main drivers that influence others. Based on those analyses results a conceptual model of sustainable geothermal energy development has been developed which consists of a management system, funding/budget support, actor to manage, and regulation management. Keywords: Conceptual model, geothermal energy development, Darajat Garut, MDS, AHP, ISM.