Intergreen Time Calculation Method of Signalized Intersections Based on Safety Reliability Theory: A Monte-Carlo Simulation Approach

摘要

In China, around ninety percent of the traffic accidents at signalized intersections occur within the signal change intervals, especially during signal change from green to red. Hence, intergreen time (IGT), that is, yellow change interval plus red clearance interval, is of great significance to the safety at signalized intersections. The conventional calculation method of IGT ignores the randomness of drivers’ behaviors, which we believe is an important factor in calculation of IGT. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate a new approach to calculate the IGT based on safety reliability theory. Firstly, a comprehensive literature review concerning the conventional calculation methods of IGT is conducted. Secondly, a theoretical calculation method of IGT based on safety reliability theory is put forward; different from the conventional methods, this model accounts for the uncertainty of driving behavior parameters. Thirdly, a Monte-Carlo simulation is employed to simulate the interactive process of perception-reaction time (PRT) and vehicular deceleration and solve the proposed model. Finally, according to the Monte-Carlo simulation results, the curve clusters describing the relationship between IGT, safety reliability (50%-90%), and intersection width (15-35m) are drawn. Results show that the IGT of a signalized intersection, obeying the normal distribution, is influenced by multiple factors and most sensitive to the PRT and vehicular deceleration. Our method thus successfully incorporates the probabilistic nature of driving behavior. Taking the safety reliability into consideration can provide a more reasonable method to calculate the IGT of signalized intersections.