The impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over complex mountainous terrain

摘要

Western Norway suffered major flooding after 4 d of intense rainfall during the last week of October 2014. While events like this are expected to become more frequent and severe under a warming climate, convection-permitting scale models are showing their skill with respect to capturing their dynamics. Nevertheless, several sources of uncertainty need to be taken into account, including the impact of initial conditions on the precipitation pattern and discharge, especially over complex, mountainous terrain. In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modelling system (WRF-Hydro) is applied at a convection-permitting scale, and its performance is assessed in western Norway for the aforementioned flood event. The model is calibrated and evaluated using observations and benchmarks obtained from the Hydrologiska Byr?ns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model. The calibrated WRF-Hydro model performs better than the simpler conceptual HBV model, especially in areas with complex terrain and poor observational coverage. The sensitivity of the precipitation pattern and discharge to poorly constrained elements such as spin-up time and snow conditions is then examined. The results show the following: (1)?the convection-permitting WRF-Hydro simulation generally captures the precipitation pattern/amount, the peak flow volume and the timing of the flood event; (2)?precipitation is not overly sensitive to spin-up time, whereas discharge is slightly more sensitive due to the influence of soil moisture, especially during the pre-peak phase; and (3)?the idealized snow depth experiments show that a maximum of 0.5 m of snow is converted to runoff irrespective of the initial snow depth and that this snowmelt contributes to discharge mostly during the rainy and the peak flow periods. Although further targeted experiments are needed, this study suggests that snow cover intensifies the extreme discharge instead of acting as a sponge, which implies that future rain-on-snow events may contribute to a higher flood risk.