A new approach to downscaling soil moisture forecasts from the seasonalensemble prediction forecasting system of the ECMWF (European Centre forMedium-Range Weather Forecasts) is presented in this study. Soil moistureforecasts from this system are rarely used nowadays, although they couldprovide valuable information. Weaknesses of the model soil scheme inforecasting soil water content and the low spatial resolution of the seasonalforecasts are the main reason why soil water information has hardly been usedso far. The basic idea to overcome some of these problems is the applicationof additional information provided by two satellite sensors (ASCAT andEnvisat ASAR) to improve the forecast quality, mainly to reduce model biasand increase the spatial resolution. Seasonal forecasts from 2011 and 2012have been compared to in situ measurement sites in Kenya to test thistwo-step approach. Results confirm that this downscaling is adding skill tothe seasonal forecasts.
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