Uncertainty quantification and reduction in the characterization of subsurface stratigraphy using limited geotechnical investigation data

摘要

Subsurface stratigraphy is critical to the design, construction, and subsequent performance of geotechnical structures. However, in practice it is impossible to identify the stratigraphy of a subsurface geological domain with absolute certainty, due to the limitations imposed by geotechnical investigation techniques and project budgets. This paper presents a subsurface stratigraphic modeling and uncertainty quantification approach, which is established based on an improved and extended geological modeling technique previously established by the author and others, for simulating the stratigraphy of both two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) cases with more complex geological features. Furthermore, this approach provides quantitative evaluation of the amount of stratigraphic uncertainty in the current interpretation and enables the systematic reduction of stratigraphic uncertainty through the investigation of additional targeted borehole drilling locations. Illustrative examples, including artificial cases as well as two real cases from existing geotechnical projects, are presented in this study to demonstrate the use of the proposed analysis approach.