We describe an innovative approach to estimate global changes in extreme wave conditions by 2100, as a result of projected climate change. We generate a synthetic dataset from an ensemble of wave models forced by independent climate simulation winds, enhancing statistical confidence associated with projected changes in extreme wave conditions. Under two IPCC representative greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), we find that the magnitude of a 1 in 100-year significant wave height ( H sub s /sub) event increases by 5 to 15% over the Southern Ocean by the end of the 21st century, compared to the 1979–2005 period. The North Atlantic shows a decrease at low to mid latitudes (≈5 to 15%) and an increase at high latitudes (≈10%). The extreme significant wave height in the North Pacific increases at high latitudes by 5 to 10%. The ensemble approach used here allows statistical confidence in projected changes of extremes.
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机译：由于投影气候变化，我们描述了一种创新的方法来估算极端波条条件的全球变化。我们从独立气候模拟风强制强制的波模型的集合中生成合成数据集，增强了与极值变化相关的统计置信度。在两个IPCC代表温室气体发射场景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下，我们发现100年显着波浪高度（H S ）事件增加了5到15的幅度与1979 - 2005年期间相比，在21世纪末南海占南洋。北大西洋显示在低至中纬度（≈5至15％）下降，高纬度（≈10％）增加。北太平洋的极端显着波浪高度在高纬度下增加5％至10％。这里使用的集合方法允许对极端的预计变化进行统计信心。
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