Complexity Analysis on the Influence Factors of the Flight Delay Risk Based on SNA

摘要

Flight delay is the major emergency faced during in the process of flight production guarantee in civil aviation transportation industry, which will cause significant impact on the normal operation of large airports, and the comprehensive management on how to reduce the risk of flight delay has been conducted. Reducing the probability of delay events and its consequences is an important issue and research topics in the emergency management of civil aviation transportation industry. However, large airports are typical complex transportation infrastructure owing to the characteristics of many participation units, complex process, external environmental factors and so on, which decides that the risk factors to trigger flight delay have the characteristics of concealment and diversity, and causes the influence on how to identify the risk factors of flight delay comprehensively and systematically. Secondly, the risk factors of flight delay are interrelated and interweaved for living, which have the typical complexity features and pose the challenges on how to understand the generative mechanism of airport flight delay events and design the risk factors to eliminate and control flight delay events. This paper conducts the in-depth research and analysis of the generative mechanism and law of flight delay events and puts forward design method of flight risk management strategy according to systematic thinking through the in-depth investigation on the flight production guarantee process of Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport (Shenzhen Airport) for the existing problems of the existing flight delay management. Firstly, the analysis on flight production process of Shenzhen Airport based on the theoretical framework of society-ecology-technology is conducted, and it comprehensively uses the web crawler and Delphi method through mixed data collection method. It systematically identifies the risk factors of flight delay and the correlation between risk factors based on the collection of multiple source data of flight delay to form the deep understanding of the generative mechanism of flight delay. In addition, it innovatively uses the social network analysis method to conduct modelling for the risk factors of flight delay and their correlation and carries out analysis on the complexity to put forward risk control strategy from integrity level. The research work of this paper helps the airport management units to have scientific understanding on risk factors of flight delay and their relationship, in order to provide theoretical basis for the scientific design of risk control measures.