Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Radical Surgery for Non-Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Incorporating Hematological Biomarkers and Clinical Characteristics

摘要

Background: There is a large difference in postoperative survival in patients with non-metastatic colorectal cancer. We aimed to develop nomograms incorporating both hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with radical surgery for non-metastatic colorectal cancer. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on date from 508 patients who underwent radical resection of colorectal cancer at the Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from December 2011 to December 2015. Simple random sampling was performed by dividing these patients into a training set (n=355) and validation set(n=153), which yielded a 7:3 ratio in the sample sizes between these groups. Based on COX regression analysis of the results from the training cohort, a nomogram was developed to predict the three-year and five-year overall survival rate, and internal verification was also performed. The nomogram prediction accuracy and discriminating ability were evaluated by Harrell’s C-index (C-index), calibration curves and were compared with the colorectal cancer TNM staging system. Results: We found that age, degree of differentiation, T stage, N stage, neurological invasion, neutrophils, monocytes, HGB, and LDH were independent risk factors for predicting OS in patients with colorectal cancer. In the training cohort, the C index was 0.796 (95% CI: 0.761– 0.831). In the validation cohort, the C index was 0.671 (95% CI: 0.656– 0.686).The nomogram showed a stronger predictive ability than did TNM staging. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram had value in terms of clinical application. Conclusion: Our nomogram combined hematological biomarkers and clinical characteristics and was highly effective in predicting OS in patients with non-metastatic colorectal cancer. Hence, our nomogram may provide a reference tool for clinicians to guide individualized treatment and follow-ups for patients with colorectal cancer.