Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches

摘要

Integrated risk assessment approaches to supportcoastal managers’ decisions when designing plans are increasingly becoming an urgent need. To enable efficientcoastal management, possible present and future scenarios must be included, disaster risk reduction measures integrated, and multiple hazards dealt with. In this work, theBayesian network-based approach to coastal risk assessmentwas applied and tested at two Mediterranean sandy coasts(Tordera Delta in Spain and Lido degli Estensi–Spina inItaly). Process-oriented models are used to predict hazards atthe receptor scale which are converted into impacts throughvulnerability relations. In each site, results from 96 simulations under different scenarios are integrated by using aBayesian-based decision network to link forcing characteristics with expected impacts through conditional probabilities. Consultations with local stakeholders and experts haveshown that the tool is valuable for communicating risks andthe effects of risk reduction strategies. The tool can thereforebe valuable support for coastal decision-making.