Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for pseudomyxoma peritonei patients after surgery: A population-based study

摘要

Background : The aim of study was to develop and validate nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with pseudomyxoma peritonei (PMP) and compare the predictive accuracy with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. Methods : Data of 4959 PMP patients who underwent surgical resection were collected between 2004 and 2015 from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. All included patients were divided into training (n = 3307) and validation (n = 1652) cohorts. The Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional hazard model were applied. Nomograms were validated by discrimination and calibration. Finally, concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the predictive performance of nomograms with that of the AJCC staging system. Results : According to the univariate and multivariate analyses of training sets, both nomograms for predicting OS and CSS combining age, grade, location, N stage, M stage, and chemotherapy were identified. Nomograms predicting OS also incorporated T stage and the number of lymph nodes removed (LNR). The calibration curves showed good consistency between predicted and actual observed survival. Moreover, C-index values demonstrated that the nomograms predicting both OS and CSS were superior to the AJCC staging system in both cohorts. Conclusion : We successfully developed and validated prognostic nomograms for predicting OS and CSS in PMP patients. Two nomograms were more accurate and applicable than the AJCC staging system for predicting patient survival, which may help clinicians stratify patients into different risk groups, tailor individualized treatment, and accurately predict patient survival in PMP.