RESEARCH ON THE ESTIMATION OF PARTICLE SIZE DISTRIBUTION IN NATURAL GAS PIPELINE BASED ON BAYESIAN STATISTICAL THEORY

摘要

Natural gas pipelines contain a certain number of tiny solid particles coining from drilling and transportation process which may lead to blockage and pipe erosion. Particle size distribution (PSD) is the basis of particle sedimentation research and also support in filtrating equipment selection as well as pipeline management. In the past, (he acquisition of particle size distribution in the pipeline adopts classical statistical methods, and large errors arc likely to occur in the ease of small-volume samples. In (his paper, five commonly used particle size distribution models of gas pipelines were selected for model selection. The model parameters were calculated using both classical and Bayesian statistical methods based on two field pipeline particle size datasets. The results showed that the Bayesian method is superior to the classical statistical method in each goodness of fit index when the sample size is less than 75%, and the stability of Bayesian is high (change value is less than 0.05). Besides, the presence or absence of prior information has little effect on the Bayesian method when sample size is smaller than 25%. Therefore, it is recommended to use Bayesian statistical method to calculate the particle size distribution model in the case that observed solid particles sample is small or its capacity relative to the overall cannot be judged.