Comprehensive risk evaluation of coal spontaneous combustion in goafs based on systems-theoretic accident model and processes

摘要

The traditional risk evaluation of coal spontaneous combustion in goafs in China is unilateral and inaccurate, which can be attributed to the fact that only the change in coal properties is considered and the external environment of coal is ignored. According to latest research, the factors affecting coal spontaneous combustion in goafs is determined by the systems-theoretic accident model and processes, from which a risk index system is established. Then, a comprehensive risk evaluation model for coal spontaneous combustion in goafs is constructed with the analytic hierarchy process, unascertained measurement theory and combination weighting method, which divides the risk of coal spontaneous combustion into four levels. The model is tested in three goafs in different coal mines. Findings show that the model is objective and valid and can be applied to the risk evaluation of coal spontaneous combustion in goafs in coal mines.