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Impact of Loss and Gain Forecasting on the Behavior of Pricing Decision-making

机译:损失的影响和预测对定价决策行为的影响

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Recent forecasting research has shown a paradigm shift from algorithm aversion to appreciation. Despite growing trust in technological decision support, business decisions are often made based on gut feeling and intuition, ignoring part or all of the available data and information. Creating effective decision support solutions necessitates the understanding of the impact of emerging artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies on business decision-making processes. This study examines whether forecasting information delivery at a time when a business decision is made influences or changes the decision maker's mind, thereby leading to a different decision. The study employs a 2 × 2 between-subject experimental setting where forecasted results (gain/loss) and automated advice (risk/certainty) were crossed-examined. A sample of 137 participants was asked to make four different product price change decisions assisted by automated decision aid. The experiment involved two independent samples, one taken from Amazon Mechanical Turk workers and the other from the members of LinkedIn managerial groups. Results show that decision-makers are more likely to rely on automated recommendation and change their initial decision when forecasted decision outcomes lead to gain, whereas they would discount algorithmic aid if a loss is forecasted. This research adds to the extant literature in the field of human-technology interactions and contributes to the descriptive and prescriptive decision theories by illustrating that gain forecasting has a higher impact on the algorithm appreciation than loss forecasting.
机译:最近的预测研究显示了从算法厌恶到欣赏的范例转变。尽管对技术决策支持的信任日益增长,但经常根据肠道感觉和直觉,忽略部分或全部可用数据和信息而制作的业务决策。创建有效决策支持解决方案需要了解新兴人工智能和机器学习技术对业务决策过程的影响。本研究审查了在业务决策的一段时间预测信息交付是否会影响或改变决策者的思想时,从而导致不同的决定。该研究采用2×2的受试者实验环境,其中预测结果(增益/亏损)和自动建议(风险/确定性)被审查。要求137名参与者的样本进行自动决策援助协助的四种不同的产品价格变更决策。该实验涉及两个独立的样本,一人从亚马逊机械土耳其工人和LinkedIn管理团队成员中取出。结果表明,当预测决策结果导致收益时,决策者更有可能依靠自动建议并改变其初步决定,而如果预测损失,他们会折扣算法援助。该研究增加了人力技术相互作用领域的现存文献,并通过说明增益预测对算法升值产生了更高的影响而有助于描述性和规范决策理论。

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