Impact of technological innovation on CO2 emissions and emissions trend prediction on ‘New Normal’ economy in China

摘要

As the largest carbon emitter in the world, China faces up with great pressure to reduce emissions. China's economy stepped into a status so called ‘New Normal’, in which major change is taking place in terms of growth rate & force, development model, and economic structure. Firstly, an extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model was established to study the impact of technological innovation on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions based on Chinese provincial panel data from 1997 to 2015. Secondly, the sample was classified into two groups, namely high-speed growth group and low-speed growth group, and the extended STIRPAT model was used to investigate the impact of technological innovation on CO2 emissions in these two groups. Thirdly, scenario simulations were herein introduced to predict CO2 emissions in 2016–2030 as economy stepped into the ‘New Normal’. Finally, logistic equation was applied to predict CO2 emissions during the period of 2016–2030. It was deduced that in comparison with the high-speed growth group, independent innovation makes a greater contribution on promoting CO2 emissions as the economy keeps a slowly growth rate. Besides, the contribution of introducing innovation on CO2 emissions was proven to be essentially marginal as for the low-speed growth group although it has significant impact effect on reducing CO2 emissions from the high-speed growth group. The prediction indicates new progress on CO2 emissions reduction in the future China will be achieved as appropriate policy on technological innovation is issued by government in the ‘New Normal’ period.