Hand hygiene improvement or antibiotic restriction to control the household transmission of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli : a mathematical modelling study

摘要

The best strategy to control ESBL-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) spread in the community is lacking. We developed an individual-based transmission model to evaluate the impact of hand hygiene (HH) improvement and reduction in antibiotic use on the within-household transmission of ESBL-EC. We used data from the literature and incorporated key elements of ESBL-EC transmission such as the frequency and nature of contacts among household members, antibiotic use in the community and hand hygiene behaviour. We introduced in a household a single ESBL-EC colonised person and simulated the transmission dynamics of ESBL-EC over a one-year time horizon. The probability of ESBL-EC transmission depended on the household composition and the profile of the initial carrier. In the two-person household, the probability of ESBL-EC transmission was 5.3% (95% CI 5.0–5.6) or 6.6% (6.3–6.9) when the index person was a woman or a man, respectively. In a four-person household, the probability of transmission varied from 61.4% (60.9–62.0) to 68.8% (68.3–69.3) and was the highest when the index patient was the baby. Improving HH by 50% reduced the probability of transmission by 33–62%. Antibiotic restriction by 50% reduced the transmission by 2–6%. The transmission of ESBL-EC is frequent in households and especially those with a baby. Antibiotic reduction had little impact on ESBL-EC. Improvement of hygiene in the community could help prevent transmission of ESBL-EC.