Impact of Climate Change on the Growth of Typical Crops in Karst Areas: A Case Study of Guizhou Province

摘要

Climate change has emerged as a significant man-made global environmental challenge marked by rising temperature. The global rising temperature is supposed to alter climatic patterns like floods and droughts, thereby affecting human life supporting system and global food production. In order to clarify the impact of weather events on agricultural production in karst landforms, this study selected the indices of the growth period of crops (start time and duration), growing season precipitation, intense precipitation, number of consecutive rainless days, and number of drought-flood abrupt alternation events to evaluate the variation trend of future weather events and their impact on crop growth in Guizhou Province, China. The results show that (1) the climate is generally getting warmer. From 2019 to 2050, the sowing period of winter wheat and rice tends to be postponed. The duration of maize and rice’s growth period will be shortened, and the life cycle of wheat also emerges as having a decreasing tendency except for those from the southern region. Comparing with the mean value during 1961 to 2018, the average crop cycle length of winter wheat, summer maize, and rice was shortened. The rate of shortening of crop cycle length is faster than the value during 1961 to 2018. (2) In the next 30 years, extreme precipitation concentrates in June and mainly falls in the central and southeast parts of Guizhou Province. In addition, summer is the outbreak period of drought events and drought-flood abrupt alternation events, which has a great impact on crop’s growth. This study can provide references for the planting system, structure, layout, and management of crops in the karst region.