Analysis and Prediction of Chinese Medium and Long Term Total Demand of Grain and Economic Structure

摘要

With the advance of China's urbanization, industrialization accelerated and extensions of agricultural, our grain demand changes, then it has a important sense for the forecast of total food demanded during 2014 to 2030 involves China's food security, social stability and rapid development. In this study, we use time series model to forecast the rural and urban residents' per capita food consumption in China during 2020 to 2030, then we combines it with population growth and urbanization-related data of the total food demanded to forecast Chinese total demands in 2030. The results showed that the total demand of food has an increasing trend, as it in 2030, the total grain demands was 627.5 million t, food consumption will be reduced and fodder grain consumption will continue to increase. According to this study, we have analyzed the factors affecting changes in demand for food and it came the result that the food demand is influenced interaction with China's economic structure.