Do spot prices move towards futures prices? A study on crude oil market

摘要

The importance of studying the futures markets and the relationship between spot and futures prices is given by the possibility that futures contracts offer in order to reduce particular risks. The financial theory presents the relationships between spot and futures prices in the framework of both the non-arbitrage theory and the asset pricing theory, but none of them offer information about the direction of causality between spot and futures prices. This paper attempts to analyse the dynamic relationship between spot and futures prices of the crude oil, a very important commodity. The empirical analysis is focused to examine the causal dynamics between spot and futures prices in crude oil market; the results confirm that the prices of one and two maturity futures predict spot prices. Conversely, this is not true for longer maturity futures contracts.