A Prediction Model of China Population Growth

摘要

In this article, we develop a prediction model of China population growth, and notice that the modified index curve is a sort of curve that possesses the growth limit K in the statistics, which is the same with the problem of China population growth. Considering influences of urbanization, population aging and sex proportion, we adopt and improve the modified index model, and add some coefficients to adjust the mathematical equation according to the data. The computation results show that in a short period, the population quantity will increase slowly and approach a fixed value, and in a long term, with the influence of population aging, some factors will put up periodic fluctuations.