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Research on Hybrid Wind Speed Prediction System Based on Artificial Intelligence and Double Prediction Scheme

机译:基于人工智能和双预测方案的混合风速预测系统研究

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Wind energy analysis and wind speed modeling have a significant impact on wind power generation systems and have attracted significant attention from many researchers in recent decades. Based on the inherent characteristics of wind speed, such as nonlinearity and randomness, the prediction of wind speed is considered to be a challenging task. Previous studies have only considered point prediction or interval measurement of wind speed separately and have not combined these two methods for prediction and analysis. In this study, we developed a novel hybrid wind speed double prediction system comprising a point prediction module and interval prediction module to compensate for the shortcomings of existing research. Regarding point prediction in the developed double prediction system, a novel nonlinear integration method based on a backpropagation network optimized using the multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on decomposition was successfully implemented to derive the final prediction results, which enable further improvement of the accuracy of point prediction. Based on point prediction results, we propose an interval prediction method that constructs different intervals according to the classification of different data features via fuzzy clustering, which provides reliable interval prediction results. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed system outperforms existing methods in engineering applications and can be used as an effective technology for power system planning.
机译:风能分析和风速建模对风力发电系统产生了重大影响,近几十年来吸引了许多研究人员的重大关注。基于风速的固有特征,例如非线性和随机性,风速预测被认为是一个具有挑战性的任务。以前的研究仅考虑了风速的点预测或间隔测量,并且尚未将这两种方法组合用于预测和分析。在这项研究中,我们开发了一种新型混合风速双预测系统,包括点预测模块和间隔预测模块,以补偿现有研究的缺点。关于开发的双预测系统中的点预测,成功实现了一种基于基于分解的多目标进化算法优化的反向慢化网络的新型非线性积分方法,以导出最终预测结果,这可以进一步提高点预测的准确性。基于点预测结果,我们提出了一种间隔预测方法,其通过模糊聚类根据不同数据特征的分类构造不同的间隔,这提供了可靠的间隔预测结果。实验结果表明,所提出的系统优于工程应用中的现有方法,可用作电力系统规划的有效技术。

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