Hybridized Extreme Learning Machine Model with Salp Swarm Algorithm: A Novel Predictive Model for Hydrological Application

摘要

The capability of the extreme learning machine (ELM) model in modeling stochastic, nonlinear, and complex hydrological engineering problems has been proven remarkably. The classical ELM training algorithm is based on a nontuned and random procedure that might not be efficient in convergence of excellent performance or possible entrapment in the local minima problem. This current study investigates the integration of a newly explored metaheuristic algorithm (i.e., Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA)) with the ELM model to forecast monthly river flow. Twenty years of river flow data time series of the Tigris river at the Baghdad station, Iraq, is used as a case study. Different input combinations are applied for constructing the predictive models based on antecedent values. The results are evaluated based on several statistical measures and graphical presentations. The river flow forecast accuracy of SSA-ELM outperformed the classical ELM and other artificial intelligence (AI) models. Over the testing phase, the proposed SSA-ELM model yielded a satisfactory enhancement in the level accuracies (8.4 and 13.1 percentage of augmentation for RMSE and MAE, respectively) against the classical ELM model. In summary, the study ascertains that the SSA-ELM model is a qualified data-intelligent model for monthly river flow prediction at the Tigris river, Iraq.