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Structural Changes in the Korean Housing Market before and after Macroeconomic Fluctuations

机译:宏观经济波动前后韩国住房市场的结构变化

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The purpose of this paper is to identify structural changes in the Korean housing market for evaluating the sustainability of the Korean housing market and to derive important implications to seek housing business strategies and public policies. Two time periods were analyzed: April 2001–December 2007 and January 2008–December 2014 to identify the impact after the global financial crisis of 2008. The market was divided into transaction, chonsei, and monthly rent. The correlations were analyzed using a vector error correction model (VECM). A key result was that during the economic depression, demand for chonsei did not flow to the transaction market; this phenomenon affected the overall recovery of the housing market. The supply of chonsei today is rapidly decreasing with the depression in the transaction. Increases in chonsei prices are expected to continue along with the possibility that demand for chonsei will flow into the transaction or monthly rent market. Based on recent trends, the chonsei market, once main stream, will gradually weaken, and the Korean housing market will reorganize into transactions and monthly rent. This structural change may turn the Korean housing market into a target for long-term investments.
机译:本文的目的是识别韩国住房市场的结构变化,以评估韩国房地市场的可持续性,并导致求出住房业务战略和公共政策的重要意义。分析了两段时间:2007年4月和2007年12月和2014年1月 - 2014年1月,以确定2008年全球金融危机后的影响。该市场分为交易,Chonsi和每月租金。使用矢量纠错模型(VECM)分析相关性。一个关键的结果是,在经济抑郁症期间,对Chonsi的需求没有流向交易市场;这种现象影响了住房市场的总体恢复。今天的Chonsi供应迅速下降了交易中的抑郁症。 Chonsi价格的增加预计将继续持续这种情况,即大康的需求将流入交易或每月租金市场。基于最近的趋势,曾经主流的大康市场逐步削弱,韩国住房市场将重新组织交易和月租。这种结构变化可能将韩国住房市场转变为长期投资的目标。

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