A Modeling Approach for Farmland Protection Zoning Considering Spatial Heterogeneity: A Case Study of E-Zhou City, China

摘要

Farmland protection in China is facing multiple pressures, including urbanization, population growth and ecological degradation. Primary farmland zoning was introduced as a basic state policy to ensure national food security. Previous studies about “primary farmland zoning” have always taken the factors as global linear variables, neglecting the spatial heterogeneity of the study areas. Based on the Development Priority Zoning (DPZ) strategy, we present a zoning approach using Bayesian networks (BNs) for considering regional differences. The networks were developed using quantitative biophysical and economic variables from multi-scale and historical change data of farmland. The simulated results substantiate that this method can ensure the agricultural quality, stability and connectivity of primary farmland. Furthermore, it can further optimize the spatial allocation of primary farmland to meet the development conditions and trends of different sub-regions, promoting the balance between the farmland protection, urban development and ecological protection of certain regions.