Sensitivity analysis of China’s energy-related CO 2 emissions intensity for 2012 based on input–output Model

摘要

This paper employed a sensitivity analysis based on the input-output model to identify the key sectors and main productive linkages between activity branches in terms of CO 2 emissions in China. In particular, we established the Chinese energy-input-output table for 2012. Based on the input-output data, sensitivity analysis, is introduced to probe into two major drivers, i.e., the emissions intensity coefficient ( c ) and technology coefficient ( B ). The results show that (1) Regarding the driver c, the top six emissions-intensity sectors are tested to be the key sectors which will cause the highest emissions. (2) For B , the emissions intensity is the most sensitive to the technology change of the Production and supply of electric power and heat industry (n4) with direction transaction relation. (3) With respect to the values of two elasticity indicators for B , these sectors with a higher “structure-relevant” have a lower “technology-relevant”. This implied that the technology coefficient has more influence on the CO 2 emission intensity of n4 after considering the structural impact of final demand. Emphatically, the analytical method used in this study can provide valuable information for planners and decision makers to formulate feasible and practical industrial policies with implications for CO 2 emissions.