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Comparison methods of short term electrical load forecasting

机译:短期电负荷预测的比较方法

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The supply of electricity that exceeds the load requirement results in the occurrence of electrical power losses. To provide the appropriate power supply to these needs, there must be a plan for the provision of electricity by making prediction or estimation of electrical load. Therefore the issue of electrical load forecasting becomes very important in the provision of efficient power. In this study, the author tries to build a model of short-term electrical load prediction using artificial neural network (ANN) with learning algorithm levenberg-marquardt (Trainlm), Bayesian regularization (Trainbr) and scaled conjugate gradient (Trainscg). Scope of research data retrieval is limited electrical load on the work area of Serang City. The results of this study show that the JST prediction of levenberg-marquardt (Trainlm) algorithm is better than the calculated prediction using Bayesian regularization (Trainbr) and scaled conjugate gradient (Trainscg) algorithms. The electric load prediction shows that the average error (Trainlm) is 3.37. Thus, it can be concluded that the electrical load prediction using the levenberg-marquardt (Trainlm) JST algorithm is more accurate than that of the Bayesian regularization (Trainbr) JST algorithm and the scaled conjugate gradient (Trainscg)
机译:超过负载要求的电力导致电力损耗的发生。为了为这些需求提供适当的电源,必须通过制造预测或估计电负荷来提供电力的计划。因此,在提供有效功率方面,电负荷预测问题变得非常重要。在这项研究中,作者试图使用学习算法Levenberg-Marquardt(TrainBrm),贝叶斯正则化(TrainBR)和缩放共轭梯度(Trainscg)的人工神经网络(ANN)构建短期电荷预测模型。研究数据检索范围是Serang City工作区的有限电力负荷。该研究的结果表明,Levenberg-Marquardt(TrainLM)算法的JST预测优于使用贝叶斯正则化(TrainBR)和缩放共轭梯度(Trainscg)算法的计算预测。电负载预测表明平均误差(TrainLM)为3.37。因此,可以得出结论,使用Levenberg-Marquardt(TrainLM)JST算法的电负荷预测比贝叶斯正则化(TrainBR)JST算法和缩放共轭梯度(Trainscg)更准确

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