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Using Benford’s law to investigate Natural Hazard dataset homogeneity

机译:使用本福德定律研究自然灾害数据集的同质性

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Working with a large temporal dataset spanning several decades often represents a challenging task, especially when the record is heterogeneous and incomplete. The use of statistical laws could potentially overcome these problems. Here we apply Benford’s Law (also called the “First-Digit Law”) to the traveled distances of tropical cyclones since 1842. The record of tropical cyclones has been extensively impacted by improvements in detection capabilities over the past decades. We have found that, while the first-digit distribution for the entire record follows Benford’s Law prediction, specific changes such as satellite detection have had serious impacts on the dataset. The least-square misfit measure is used as a proxy to observe temporal variations, allowing us to assess data quality and homogeneity over the entire record, and at the same time over specific periods. Such information is crucial when running climatic models and Benford’s Law could potentially be used to overcome and correct for data heterogeneity and/or to select the most appropriate part of the record for detailed studies.
机译:处理跨越数十年的大型时间数据集通常是一项艰巨的任务,尤其是当记录异质且不完整时。使用统计法可能会克服这些问题。自1842年以来,我们在这里将本福德定律(也称为“第一位数字定律”)应用于热带气旋的行进距离。在过去的几十年中,热带气旋的记录受到探测能力提高的广泛影响。我们发现,虽然整个记录的第一位数字分布遵循本福德定律的预测,但是诸如卫星检测之类的特定变化已对数据集产生了严重影响。最小二乘失配度量用作观察时间变化的代理,使我们能够评估整个记录以及特定时间段内的数据质量和同质性。在运行气候模型时,此类信息至关重要,并且本福德定律可潜在地用于克服和纠正数据异质性和/或选择记录中最合适的部分进行详细研究。

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